Winter Story

Riko Yamagishi and Yumeno Kishimoto announce their intent to graduate from Tsubaki Factory

Well, I sure picked a hell of a day to skip my normal routine of checking several online H!P content sources (mm-bbs, Twitter and H!P Fans discord) before heading to work. And while the double graduation of Riko and Kishimon was a hell of a thing to come home to, individually, neither is a huge surprise to me. Kiki Asakura’s graduation felt as much like a beginning as it did an end. Kiki was both the face of TF and one of the younger original members, but with the group’s last two singles, Kiki’s presence was meaningfully diminished as TF’s sound and identity was shifted away from the feminine Asakura and more toward that of the power-utahime Kishimoto. The increased workload of the talented recent additions only magnified Kiki’s reduced role in the group. Furthermore, the change in sound and identity always felt unsettled, as if the only thing anyone connected to TF was sure of was that the group had irrevocably moved on from the Tsubaki Factory of “Hatsukoi Sunrise” through 2nd Step. The Tsubaki Factory that we’ve known is ending and a new TF is beginning, so it’s no shock that original members might feel it’s time to move on.

Of the two, I’m actually less surprised at Kishimoto’s decision to graduate. Despite celebrating her 23rd birthday just two weeks ago, Kishimon has increasingly seemed to be outgrowing not only TF, but the role of idol itself over the past couple of years. As one of H!P’s top voices, her desire to pursue a solo career makes sense in a vacuum, but M-line would be only marginally less constraining than TF, and she has little name recognition outside of the Harowota bubble. I hope Kishimon has paid attention to the fortunes of other recent H!P idols who’ve gone solo, and taken notes with an eye toward her own solo flight. Hint: a niche genre provides a better path to sustained success than a more common sound.

Riko’s announcement was slightly more surprising to me, although still not very surprising given that the group she’s led from its inception has changed/is changing into something appreciably different, and that she’ll turn 25 in November. Still, her post-idol prospects were never as clear as Kishimon’s, and H!P letting three group leaders graduate in the same year seemed unthinkable. Yet, here we are. Acting feels like a good fit for Riko, though, and I wouldn’t be stunned if she has a decent career with it.

Of larger significance is the transformational change the Hello! Project as a whole is experiencing in 2023. Tsubaki Factory alone will lose their leader, their face and their voice. Angerme will lose Akari Takeuchi, who is all of those things for her group, as well as the final link to S/mileage. Morning Musume will lose their leader, Mizuki Fukumura, who is also the leader of Hello! Project. At a minimum this rivals the effect that 2019’s departures had on H!P, although I’d argue that 2023 will have a bigger impact on more groups. If Akari Uemura decides to pack it in this year, I might call it unprecedented.

If we look at the last 10 years of H!P’s history as a seasonal calendar, the last Spring lasted from 2013-2015, with the debuts of Country Girls, Juice=Juice and Kobushi Factory, and the indie debut of Tsubaki Factory; Morning Musume added the four-member 12th generation and started the MM’xx group name convention. Summer followed from 2016-2019, a period that I consider to be H!P’s second Golden Era where the classic catalogs of Angerme, Juice=Juice, Country Girls and Tsubaki Factory were largely formed, Morning Musume released two classic singles and one of their best albums, while C-ute went out with some of the best music of their career. Fall started to creep in about halfway through 2019 with the graduation of Angerme and H!P leader Ayaka Wada, although the debut of Beyooooonds later that year was a sort of Indian Summer. By December, though, the leaves became colorful and the air became crisp with the final dissolution of Country Girls. In 2020 Anjugeddon claimed three members, Karin Miyamoto — the face of J=J — departed, Kobushi Factory disbanded and Covid-19 interrupted the release and touring schedules of everyone. 2021 saw the departure of ever more important members: Masaki Sato, Sayuki Takagi, and Tomoko Kanazawa — not to mention another blossoming young idol from Anju. It was also around this time that the signature sounds of Anju, J=J and TF started to shift, although often times to great effect. By the end of 2022 J=J lost another important member, and MM lost two post 12th-gen members. While it was a great year for music, it was clear that several Hello! Project torches were being prepped for hand-off.

It’s not a perfect analogy — there’s plenty of overlap — but one thing is absolutely certain: Winter isn’t coming, it’s here, and it’s just starting.